When Ricky arrived here last summer, Suns fans around the globe breathed a sigh of relief. Finally, our point guard woes had been fixed! However, with Rubio entering his 10th year in the league next season, and at age 30 with a significant injury history, questions of how much longer he can go have to be asked.
Ideally the phase out starts next season, with him potentially coming off the bench in the final year of his contract in 2021/22. There are two clear paths to follow: replace him with someone similar (i.e. a traditional PG) or, we take the path less travelled – transitioning Booker into a full time 1 and adopting a more heliocentric approach. It's the later that I'm more interested in, and something that I believe is worth discussing.
Booker at the 1 is not a new concept, and its worked
Despite what some Suns fans might have you think, Booker at the 1 has been incredibly effective over the last 2 seasons. For reference, per PBP Stats, league average ORtg/DRtg in 19/20 was 111.05, and 110.98 in 18/19.
18/19: Booker at the 1 w/o Jamal, Jimmer, Canaan, Daniels, Tyler, Evans, Melton or Okobo on the floor
Possessions: 717
ORtg: 117.57
DRtg: 109.64
NetRtg: 7.93
19/20: Booker at the 1 w/o Rubio, Tyler, Carter, Okobo, Harper, Jerome or Lecque on the floor
Possessions: 46 (only)
ORtg: 128.89
DRtg: 108.70
NetRtg: 20.19
Essentially, in 18/19, line-ups with Booker as the only guard on the floor had a relative ORtg of +6.59 and a relative DRtg of +1.34. In other words, that's the league's best offence, and 11th best defence.
A 700+ possession sample size obviously isn’t great, but it’s telling, especially considering it’s not as if the guys playing 2 through 5 were star players. Rather, it was a rookie Ayton, a rookie Mikal, a soon to be in the G-League Josh Jackson, a washed Ariza etc. Below is back to back offensive possessions I want to highlight from last year v Boston. Both start early in the shot clock and contain easy read options for Booker and Kelly – just good, simple basketball, that isn't dependent on having advanced ball handlers or playmakers.
The 19/20 sample size is much smaller, with the majority of the possessions coming in 1 game, a game that we lost by 13 points to Atlanta. On the surface that sounds terrible, however in the 12 minutes of action where Booker was at the 1 with 4 of Oubre, Mikal, Cam, Dario and Ayton, the team was a +8. This game served as a great example of how devastating such line-ups can be. In particular, the benefits of having a 6’5 guy on the court as your smallest player.
Style of play with Booker at the 1
A system with Booker permanently as the primary handler would definitely have a heavier focus on the two-man game between him and Ayton. Throughout his career he has been a pretty solid scorer out of the PnR, but there is some obvious room for improvement, especially in his pull-up game:
19/20: 6.5 possessions a game, 0.90 PPP, 65th percentile
18/19: 9.2 possessions a game, 0.93 PPP, 74th percentile
17/18: 7.2 possessions a game, 0.85 PPP, 61st percentile
16/17: 6.4 possessions a game, 0.78 PPP, 46th percentile
Together, Booker and Ayton already have an advanced two-man game, with Booker's passing game improving each season, and I expect it to only get better with improved spacing. Just a few examples below of how they have operated together as a combo in the past - the perfect combination of horizontal and vertical gravity making them almost unstoppable.
Hiding Booker Defensively
The modern game is all about versatility, especially on defence. Anecdotally, point guards tend to be smaller, which limits their switchability and overall defensive impact. As such, it’s significantly easier to hide Booker defensively with 2/3 versatile wings next to him, allowing him to take the least threatening matchup among the oppositions 1 through 4. Simply looking at recent champions tells you the importance of being at least above average defensively:
ORtg and DRtg rank of last 10 champions:
18/19 - Toronto - 5th and 5th
17/18 - GS - 3rd and 11th
16/17 - GS - 1st and 2nd
15/16 - Cavs - 3rd and 10th
14/15 - GS - 2nd and 1st
13/14 - Spurs - 7th and 3rd
12/13 - Heat - 2nd and 9th
11/12 - Heat - 2nd and 9th
10/11 - Cavs - 8th and 8th
9/10 - Lakers - 11th and 4th Height doesn't necessarily make you a good defender, there's plenty examples of this being the case, however it does help in certain situations. Not many 6'0 PGs are getting a hand on this:
Drawbacks
Heliocentrism is a fairly modern concept, as such, there isn’t a tonne of history and therefore evidence of it working or not.
The most commonly made comparison of playing Booker at the 1 is to Harden, the similarities and effectiveness (at least in the regular season) of which are undeniable. However, even he has always had a Russ/CP3/Pat Bev next to him capable of handling the ball, whilst also always being more comfortable as an isolation heavy offensive player.
The most applicable recent case study in my opinion is Boston. Kemba next to 3 versatile wings and a big was their most used line-up this past season, posting a fantastic NetRtg of +10.2. Whilst this isn't the most heliocentric approach given the talent guys like Brown, Tatum and Hayward have, there is certainly room for Oubre and Ayton to move into similar offensive roles, and it serves as a great example of how a 1/3/1 lineup can work. Note that Atlanta are clearly embracing heliocentrism with Trae as well.
Additionally, going to a more Booker centric model may not maximise Ayton. He will still get his fair share of put backs, PnR possessions with Booker, and post touches, however without both of Rubio and Booker there getting him the ball, there will be some lost returns. That said, there’s always the potential to bring a Rubio esque guy off the bench to play with Ayton in bench line-ups whilst Booker sits.
Potentially the biggest roadblock to this system may be that finding a guard to start next to Booker, then run the 2nd unit won’t be that difficult. Secondary wing creation on the other hand, or at least tertiary creation is. Kelly and Cam certainly aren’t bringing it, whilst Mikal maybe has some tertiary abilities up his sleeve, but that’s no guarantee. Someone new, either via the draft, free agency or trade, is probably needed to reduce the load so that not everything has to run through Booker whilst he is out there in a 1 guard line-up. This would be especially important in play-off situations.
Ultimately, the safe route is for sure going with a traditional point guard next to him. However, I’d argue the upside of playing him at the 1 with 3 wings and Ayton next to him is something too great to ignore. At the very least, it has to be given some extended airtime next season, especially if we don't acquire a PG on draft night.