The Numbers Game
Not going to provide any analysis here, more just some figures to help quantify things.
Impact Metrics
*DBPM – 80th percentile
*DRPM – 75th percentile
*DPIPM – 56th percentile
*DWS/48 – 46th percentile
*DRAPM – 45th percentile
Stocks (Per100) *Steals – 91st percentile
*Deflections – 89th percentile
*Blocks – 59th percentile
Playtypes
*Isolation D – 40th percentile
*PnR Ball Handler D – 16th percentile
*DFG% Differential at the Rim – 23rd percentile
Note that this is all pre-bubble data for 2 core reasons: *Teams and thus matchups were heavily compromised during the bubble, with numerous games seeing multiple starters on both sides at times sit
*Varying degrees of competitiveness/need to win by teams
The Good
Intangibles
Jevon’s greatest defensive weapon may just be the psychological impact he has on the game. His energy on defense is infectious, constantly active on and off ball, with his incredible work ethic on full display
Effort play after effort play, lifting his teammates, often acting as the sparkplug for 6-0 or 8-0 runs. It’s impossible to quantify these things, but they’re unquestionably there, and no doubt are beneficial to the team’s performance.
Peskiness
Jevon is the sort of guy primary ball-handlers hate to see. Whilst more annoying than truly effective, Jevon’s on-ball aggressiveness where he constantly harasses his opponent, making them uncomfortable and often causing them to pick up their dribble or turn it over, is at the very least incredibly fun to watch. At times, it can cause the oppositions offensive possession to stall out, taking valuable time off the shot-clock, and forcing a rushed shot.
This great video by @XinNBA (chuck him a follow if you somehow aren’t already) highlights all of this and more
The Bad
Physical Limitations
At 6’1 w/ a 6’4 wingspan, and without outlier athletic ability, Jevon’s physical limitations cannot be understated. Carter battles hard, don’t get me wrong, and he is deceptively strong, but its inherently hard to have a positive impact on D when you’re that small.
In particular, longer and/or strong players are able to take advantage of Jevon in single coverage, especially when they’re able to get going downhill. Jevon simply doesn’t have the length to contest shots or recover.
The below video highlights 3 core things:
*A tendency to allow opponents to push him under the rim
*An inability to consistently contest shots even with perfect defensive positioning and footwork, with matchups simply rising above him
*An inability to impact on shots when an opponent gets him on their hip
Interior Help D
Jevon can be positioned perfectly, but more often than not, his efforts are futile – size matters. This isn’t a criticism of Jevon alone, its borderline impossible to provide adequate rim protection for anyone his size, but it is another missed opportunity for him to provide defensive value.
One way to explain this missed opportunity, is to compare him to Kelly Oubre. Kelly isn’t a good defender; however, his athleticism and length allow him to perform a range of defensive roles. This provides line-up flexibility and ensures we don’t have a specific defensive weakness that arises through him being out there. With Jevon on the floor, we will always have a clear weakness that opponents can target.
This may not be critical, however, with the growing presence of 5-out, defenses no longer have the benefit of an anchor 5 to protect the rim, increases the need for good team defenders who can contribute on a number of levels, rather than just at point of attack.
Aggressiveness
Whilst normally a positive, sometimes his aggressiveness gets him in trouble. Not super common, but we’ve all seen how quickly his solo full court press can backfire with his matchup getting him on their back for an easy layup or dump off pass like below.
Additionally, whilst generating a number of defensive events (as highlighted in the positives section), being overly aggressive in the half court can often see him get blown past by quicker guards that have the handling chops. I didn’t clip this, but how he dealt with Lillard through our 4 matchups this season is a pretty good example of how being in the grill of your opponent has its dangers. Lillard is obviously a fantastic player, with very few if any able to stop him, but if you’ve got the time to re-watch some of Jevon’s minutes v Portland, it’s a good example of what I’m trying to get across.
The Verdict
Ultimately, I think Carter’s best role is as a defensive spark plug. The perfect guy to come in when you’re down 10 on the 2nd night of a back to back, and the effort seems low. That is to say, not a regular rotation player, as on a night to night basis, I’m not sure he is good enough defensively to cover up for his offensive shortcomings.
The only regular rotation player in the league that doesn't have size or much chops as a playmaker or scorer is Pat Bev. As a high-end outcome, this is certainly possible, at which point Jevon is a valuable rotation piece, but he simply isn’t ‘there’ yet.
As an 11th-15th man right now he is more than capable, however, I’m not sure a franchise that just sold their G-league team and isn’t in the Championship hunt, should be using the backend of their roster on a 25-year-old, especially with other developmental guards there already. The only reason I would bring him back would be for continuity or because he really is beloved by his teammates and critical to the locker room. If the idea is to bring him back as a core rotation player, playing 15+ mins a night, we are asking for trouble.