Draft Zone: Killian Hayes

There’s a lot to love about French PG Killian Hayes, with his playmaking, 3 level scoring and defensive upside providing a compelling case for him to be regarded as the best player in the class. Given our current PG situation, how he would fit here in Phoenix is of the utmost importance.

Statistical Profile

Offensive Fit

Playmaking:

With a unique combination of vision, flair and manipulative passing, paired with the size to see over the defense, Hayes excels at creating for others.

Hayes is adept at finding the big man in role situations (shown below), including a particularly strong connection with former UoA big man Grant Jerrett. He is still raw an inaccurate at times when throwing lobs, but at this stage in his career the fact that he is even looking/attempting to make such passes is a positive sign. Ayton is an obvious upgrade here for Hayes to work with and I can see them forming a formidable 2-man game with Hayes’ dual threat scoring/passing combo and Ayton’s gravity. Very much a pick your poison situation for the defense.

Additionally, Hayes is going to make anyone that can hit a right corner 3 a lot of money. Whilst not always on the money, just having it in his arsenal at his age is a real plus, especially given he can hit them with pace and in a variety of situations as shown below.

Although not a strength of Mikal’s yet, there’s good reason to think that as he gains consistency with his mechanics, his percentages will increase, whilst Cam has already shown an ability to hit down quick corner 3s.

Evidently from both the above videos, much of these actions come from Hayes coming off some sort of action on the right side of the floor, before getting him the ball and attacking on the left side of the floor. This is something we will have to scheme for given he is far less effective going right! He will not be a seamless fit that we can just plug and play, Monty will have to design the offense with him in mind and put him in a situation to succeed.

Self-Creation:

A major flaw with our current roster this past season was that outside of Booker, nobody could create their own offense. This shows up in the horrendous 101.95 OffRtg we dished out with Booker off the floor.

Whilst not a high-level self-creator, Hayes projects well to being able to get his own shot in the league. As an 18-year-old, Hayes was often the go-to option for Ulm this past season, a testament to his capabilities. From isolation derived offense, which made up nearly 11% of Hayes’ total offensive possessions, he graded out in the 84th percentile, an exceptional figure.

Much of this can be attributed to his 3-level scoring ability, whereby he is capable of pulling up on a dime from deep (with advanced footwork), from the mid-range, and finishing at the rim.

However, Hayes is incredibly left-side dominant, which not only makes him somewhat predictable, but harms his finishing, often unwilling to use his right hand when at the rim. Additionally, his lack of athleticism (although it is improving), most notably burst, inhibits his ability to breakdown his opponent consistently.

As such, Hayes’ ceiling as a scorer is somewhat capped. Can certainly see him getting into that 16-20-point range a game with ease however, which with Booker and Ayton, is more than enough.

Below is a collection of OTD 3s (or very close) he made through the season – some genuinely excellent dribble moves well beyond his age.

Off-Ball:

At 29.4% from 3 on over 100 attempts, Hayes’ shooting doesn’t jump off the page as a strength. Take a closer look however, and things look differently. There are a few big reasons to buy Hayes’ shooting:

- Great FT% (86% on 139 attempts over the past 2 seasons)

- Great pull-up % (77th percentile off all dribble jumpers - loads of players can hit C&S but not pull-ups, very few are the other way around)

- Effective on long 2s (low volume, however graded out in the 94th percentile)

- Good touch around the rim

- Shot well from 3 in Eurocup (39% from 3, 91% from the line)

The discrepancy between his C&S, OTDs and FTs is strange to say the least, personally I believe it comes down to a lack of lift on his C&S and inconstancies when landing. Both of these are very fixable and require no mechanical change to his shot. Essentially, I have very little worry in him not being a reliable 3-point shooter.

In terms of cutting we saw very little of this given he played primarily on-ball for Ulm; however, I don’t expect this to be a large part of his game for us either. Similarly, as an off-ball mover, he understands spacing well, however I’d like to see him be more active moving along the perimeter and relocating more often. With Booker demanding significant attention already, and Ayton likely to garner more as he grows, there is a real opportunity here for Hayes to generate easy shots for himself.

Defensive Fit

PnR Defense:

A major hole in our defense this past season was in PnR situations – something Hayes is adept at for his age. He fights hard over screens, has nice length to recover if he gets caught, and is capable of switching if needed. This said, his lack of lateral quickness does leave him prone to being blown by if the screener flips his screen or the ball handler rejects it. Whilst not a superstar PnR defender, he can more than hold his own, and will be a noticeable upgrade year 1 on Rubio/Elie/Jevon.

Flexibility:

Hayes’ size at 6’5 with a 6’8 wingspan and strong frame give him a huge physical advantage on the defensive end, as well as providing defensive line-up flexibility that you can’t get with a smaller guard like Rubio on the floor.

Whilst Hayes will primarily guard opposing PGs, he is more than capable of pinch hitting at the 3, holding the versatility to operate in a switch heavy, zone or more traditional defensive scheme. With Booker at the 2, we’d be able to roll out a starting/closing line-up where everyone is 6’5+, a luxury that allows us to be flexible with matchups and defensive schemes.

Team Defense:

As a team defender Hayes has shown a consistent ability to make winning plays. He actively and effectively stunts and disrupts passing lanes as well as often making smart rotations to close off opportunities for the opposition. As a high IQ player on both ends, and with his athleticism improving, there’s good reason to think he may develop into a legitimate impact team defender, which next to Booker is always a plus.

Here he is in one of his final games before COVID in the German BBL v Medi Bayreuth. His ability to use his physical gifts to his advantage when hassling ball handlers, as well as his IQ to make defensive reads and fill passing lanes, were on full display, also ending with 4 steals.

Effort:

A final point of note, and I feel this gets underrated with a lot of prospects, is that he simply gives effort. In all likelihood he will be in a supporting role on offense behind Booker and potentially even Ayton. As such, I expect this effort to carry over into the league. He isn’t a Patrick Beverley level pest, but his effort combined with his length makes him uncomfortable to deal with for ball handlers.

Summary

Ultimately, Hayes sits at number 1 on my overall and on my Suns Specific Big Boards for a reason. He isn’t a true number 1 franchise changing prospect, but he is someone that in all likelihood is going to be a positive contributor on both ends for a winning team. With the upwards trajectory he has been on, and with a clear path to being a 2-way player, Hayes should be a priority target for us come draft night.